New Delhi, 9/8:The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that La Nina conditions affecting the Pacific Ocean may return by September. Due to the La Nina conditions related to global weather, India may experience above-normal seasonal rains and severe winters. The department said that in August and September, there may be more rain than normal and only then La Nina conditions will arise. IMD scientists said that it is too early to make predictions about this. The last time La Nina was formed from August-September 2020 to April 2021. Last time in India, it had rained more than usual for La Nina and winters had started early, as well as severe winters.
In the El Nio Southern Oscillation Bulletin for the month of July, IMD Pune has said that at present neutral ENSO conditions are prevailing in the equatorial Pacific. Also, the forecast of Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System (MMCFS) suggests that neutral ENSO conditions may persist till July-September season. After this, between August and October, the temperature in the equatorial Pacific is likely to cool down, which will create La Nia conditions.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center said on July 8 that La Nia conditions are likely to form between September and November, which will remain in effect during the winter of 2021-22. The winter season is usually between November to January.
OP Sreejit, head of IMD’s Climate Monitoring and Prediction Group, said, “Our MMCFS model shows a high probability of La Nia from September onwards. It is associated with good rains due to southwest monsoon. Also, the normal temperature is likely to remain below normal due to cloudiness due to rain. But, as of now, we cannot say how this will affect the monsoon conditions in August and September.”
He said that the IMD will soon make a prediction regarding the monsoon conditions for August. La Nina has had a negative effect on the northeast monsoon over peninsular India. It also needs to be monitored. DS Pai, head of IMD Climate Research and Services, said that La Nina conditions will form towards the end of the monsoon, so the chances of flood-like conditions are extremely low. He said that in La Nia years, we usually see much colder weather due to cloudy skies.